AFC Championship - Patriots vs. Ravens

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots 

Best defense in the AFC against arguably the best offense in all of football square up this weekend in the frosty tundra of New England.  Last week, the Patriots commandingly handled the Denver Broncos seemingly putting the game away in the first half.  Sport fans alike have to believe this is the Patriots year to get back to the promise land.  Disappointing early playoff exits in the last few years and after their devastating loss to the Giants in Superbowl XLII, Brady and Belichick are hungry for another title.

After the Ravens sluggish second half performance against the Texans, an offense that primarily focuses on the run ever since the injury to Shaub. It's hard to envision the veteran Ravens defense shutting down the high flying Pats offense when they look this good.  I was not surprised to see Veteran defensive back Ed Reed call out Joe Flacco on his lack of production.  Even though his words were "he needs to be better".  Well, that's the truth.  Last week Flacco's performance again was sub par, again.  This week, if there is a lapse in the secondary for the Ravens, or on defense at all for that matter Tom Brady is going to make them pay big time.  The Ravens want to make this game a defensive battle, thats the only way they win.  The need to dial up several different blitz packages to get Brady feeling uneasy early (if thats at all possible) and begin to run the ball and keep the Pats offense off the field.

I love the veteran leadership on the Ravens D, so I know they are going to come to play this week.  However, the match ups just do not fit suit.  With the Patriots late season defensive surge and their great offense, its hard to pick against them.  I'm going to be interested in seeing how the purple and black handle Gronkowski over the middle along with Wes in the slot.  No one all year has been able to cover Gronkowski and this certainly wont be a week to slow the record setting TE down.

Patriots advance to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI.  27-17

NFL Divisional Round - Who Wins?

Welcome back everyone, I've taken entirely too much time off from this blog and I feel bad when I look at the amount of views I received in the past month and people always had to read the same thing.  Nevertheless, enjoy sports fans.

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

Drew Brees and the best offense in the NFL, against Alex Smith and the resurgent 49ers.  When you break this game down immediately recognize that the 49ers are not a typically high scoring offense.  They win games with their defense and pounding the run game with Frank Gore.   Sorry 49ers fans, but when your passing offense ranks 29th in the league behind the young Alex Smith and your facing one of the best quarterbacks in recent years, its not looking great for you. 

 Another note on the 49ers defense, they run a base 3-4 which could either really hurt them or greatly benefit them depending on their pass rush.  They are going to have to rely heavily on their Lbs to get pressure on Drew Brees or its going to be a long day for that defense.  They must have an efficient pass rush for four quarters and get Brees moving outside the tackles.  If they do that, and don't turn the ball over, they have a shot at winning the game.  They need to stay fresh and shut down the Saints on third down so they can get off the field. 

However, what about the Saints?  Everyone knows about Drew Brees and the phenomenal year he has had but the weak point for the Saints is on the outside on defense.  For the Saints to be effective on defense they have to rush from the outside and pressure Smith.  They already crowd the box with their front seven so stopping Frank Gore should not be a huge challenge.  Bottom line, if this game turns into an offensive shootout, the 49ers stand no chance.  They would not be able to keep up with Brees and the Saints offense and that's exactly what Head Coach Sean Payton wants.  Odds makers have this game very close, not me.  

Saints win  30-14

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

I'll be honest, I just cant wait for this game to be over so this talk of Tebow goes away until pre season next year.  However, if you suddenly wake up this off season and miss hearing his name, simply turn on First Take at 10 Eastern and Skip Bayless will be talking about what Tebow had for dinner last night.  Sorry Denver, but you are going to be quite disappointed Saturday evening when the best playoff quarterback in the last ten years welcomes you into his barn where the Patriots are nearly unbeatable. 

Come playoff time, the Patriots win football games and they do it well.  Gillette Stadium has not been friendly to visiting opponents come playoff time.  Since 2004, the Patriots have been hungry for another Superbowl victory.  The once early dynasty of the 2000's slowly faced early playoff exits the last few years.  However, this might be the easiest road to the Superbowl the Patriots have had in the Bill Belichick era.  They are still my favorite to win the AFC and simply put, no stats are needed to define why odds makers have New England as 14.5 point favorites. 

Patriots win 35-20

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Two words.  Joe Flacco.  Thats going to define whether the Ravens advance to Gilette Stadium next week to play for the AFC Championship.  Flacco has faced a lot of negativity for his poor performances in playoffs the last few years.  Flacco has become the first NFL quarterback in history to take his team to the playoffs his first four years consecutively.  Two more words.  Ray Lewis. Realistically, for the future Hall of Famer this is his last real shot at getting back to the Superbowl.  That Ravens defense is tough to go against in the playoffs, furthermore, even harder to throw against. 

Hats off to my runner up in the Coach of the Year award.  Gary Kubiak.  The Houston Texans have faced serious injuries all year. I credit their coaching staff and leadership for continue to push forward in the AFC South.  This football game Sunday would be completely different if QB Matt Shaub was not on IR for the season.  I think their luck runs out this weekend against the veteran Ravens.  It's not going to be a high scoring game that's for sure, but look for Houston to really try to pound the ball and ride Arian Foster to the AFC Championship game.  Unfortunately, it wont work against the Ravens front seven.  Then, when the Texans try to open up the pass they are going to face even bigger problems with Ed Reed and the Ravens secondary.  Raven's get their last win of the 2011 season.

Ravens win 27-13

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

I really am torn with this game.  I love the way the Giants are playing as of late and they look like the Giants who knocked off the 18-0 Patriots just a few years ago.  They are peaking at the right time.  Their defense has been outstanding especially their front four.  Oh, how could I forget about the year Eli Manning has had.  With him in the shotgun the Giants are seriously difficult to defend against.  The coaching staff of the Giants has done a great job of finally mixing in more of the run with their offense to let Bradshaw get loose.  Let me tell you, RUN THE BALL SUNDAY, KEEP AARON RODGERS OFF THE FIELD!  This game is going to be extremely high scoring and the Packers are going to face their toughest opponent this season. 

Again, Aaron Rodgers has the Packers right back in contention for their second straight Superbowl.  But there are a few things I would like to pick out about the new "America's Team".  Number one, their defense.  Yes, I am totally aware they have improved at the late stages of the season.  On the other hand, they still give up an average of 299 yards of passing offense per game.  Number two, their run game, they dont have one. In the playoffs, you need to have a balance.  The Giants know exactly what the Packers are going to do this weekend. 


 I'm picking the Giants to pull the upset this week simply because of their defense.  The Giants have a better chance at getting to Rodgers and pressuring him then the Packers do of getting to Eli.  The Packers run game is nonexistent and game planning against a specifically one way driven offense plays into the hands of the Giants.   Don't make me look stupid Eli.


Giants win 38-35

Heisman Vote Goes to....

So who gets my Heisman vote this season, in one of the more close races, this years winner is quite hard to predict. The three front runners are Trent Richardson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.  However, which player to pick is quite hard.  Lets break it down.

Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama Crimson Tide 

It's been a great year for the Tide's star running back totaling just over 1900 all purpose yards and 23 touchdowns this season.  Trent is a strong, fast downhill runner who has performed his best in big time games this season.  He was a powerful force in all of their victories this year and Nick Saban believes his running back is the best player in the country.   My analysis of Trent goes as such, the star running back did not have the best game in the world against the 2nd rated defense in LSU in the country during their early November show down.  His best games of the year came against, Arkansas, Florida, Penn State and Ole Miss and in the game vs the Rebels he rushed for 183 and four touchdowns.  You always try to figure out what this player means to their team and how they would fair without him. Trent is by far the catalyst for the Crimson Tide offense and they go as he goes.  Not taking any credit away from the rest of their offensive stars but Trent, who was plagued by injury last season surely showed why he is one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.

Andrew Luck - QB - Stanford Cardinals

Over 3000 yards passing and 35 passing touchdowns with two rushing touchdowns seems like a hell of a season if you ask me.  Andrew has been receiving all the hype since he decided to stay and play at Stanford this season after the departure of his head coach.  He wanted to lead the Cardinals to a National Championship which he felt short of.  However, that does not take away from some of Luck's best performances of the year.  His best game in my eyes, came against USC were he led the Cards to a Triple OT win over the Trojans.  He threw for three touchdowns and 330 yards along with a rushing touchdown.  The next game that impressed me was his performance against a fast Oregon defense.  Although they lost the game by 23 points, he still played well, the defense played horrific.  It's clear that Stanford would not be in the position they are without their star QB at the helm and would not be playing in the BCS Tositos Fiesta Bowl against the Cowboys from Oklahoma State.  To me, this guy is the most valuable to his team and they could not do without him.  Great year for Luck.

Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor Bears

RBIII has had an interesting year at Baylor with amazing wins over Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech.  He has thrown for 3,398 yards this season and 36 passing touchdowns.  He has 644 yards rushing and 9 rushing touchdowns on the season totally 45 touchdowns and over 4,300 total yards for the Baylor Bears.  The staple mark for me was his performance against Oklahoma on November 19th.  The QB threw for 479 yards and four touchdowns and had 72 yards on the ground. This team was previously ranked pre season #1 in the AP / Coaches poll and he put Baylor on his back and absolutely routed the Sooners.  HIs performance against Texas was quite impressive as well, racking up four total touchdowns and 353 all purpose yards on the day.  When you look at RBIII and the rest of Baylor its pretty clear that this team could not contend with some of the best in the Big 12 without him at the helm.  Griffin has had a monstrous season putting up amazing numbers and seemingly winning over voters left and right.


So who gets my vote?

Robert Griffin III - RBIII has better numbers than Stanford QB A. Luck for starters.  Number two, he has wins against better quality opponents and better performances in these games than his counterpart.  Baylor would not be the same team without RBIII and when it comes down to it, he really is the best player in college football this season.  The Big 12 is the second best conference in the NCAA only behind the SEC.  Some would even put the Big 12 ahead of the SEC depending on the year obviously. Throwing for almost 4000 yards and 45 touchdowns both on the ground and through the air, quite impressive.  Regardless, RBIII gets my vote.  It will be interesting to see how the next few months pan out for him and see how he can improve to become an NFL QB but that remains to be seen. Congrats to all of the candidates for a great season.  

PJG

Correct Calculations

Happy Monday Sports Fans,

So last night the sports world was informed officially who would be competing for the BCS National Championship Game.  If your an avid reader of my blog, you know that I wrote about LSU v Bama in the beginning of November in what I believed was the game of the year.  Last night, I read what appeared to be an immense amount of anger and frustration with the computer systems that the BCS uses to determine their games.  But then again, there was a lot of positive energy surrounding the January 9th showdown between the two SEC perennial powers.

Why Oklahoma St. is not in

All the credit in the world to the Cowboys and their performance this season in the Big 12.  However, lets look why they are NOT in the title game.  First off, the Cowboys best WIN of the year came against #8 ranked Kansas State. (10-2)  Their loss came against the Iowa State (3-6) (6-6) by six.  Yes, they crushed the pre season #1 Oklahoma Sooners who seemingly ended up with a disappointing season, yet again.

Why Alabama is in

Hats off again, to arguably the best coach in college football Nick Saban who has navigated his Crimson Tide to his third National Championship game.  Now, why is Alabama in and Ok St. not, here is why.  Alabama's best win on the season came against a higher ranked, and better opponent in the Arkansas Razorbacks.  A convincing win for the Tide put them ahead of the rest.  This is key, their LOSS, came against the #1 team in the country the LSU Tigers.  In OVERTIME, after missing field goals the entire first half!  Their defense kept the Tigers in check the entire game and it was a battle of the defenses.  So they are both from the SEC, it does not matter, they are the best teams.  If Alabama were to play Oklahoma State at a neutral site, you better believe the Tide will be favored, significantly because of their defense.


The bottom line here is, the two best teams in the country are playing for the National Title.  How can you argue with a computer system that takes into account the strength of schedule, your wins and losses and much more.  You cant.  It may appear as if I am a fan of the bowl system we currently have in place, thats far from the truth.  My point here is that who does not want to see LSU vs Bama again?  The BEST TWO DEFENSES in the country without question, which was pretty clear in early November in their matchup.  The SEC is the best conference in the NCAA and I find it to be a rare occurrence to were someone may argue that point with me.  You have the favorite to win the Heisman carrying the ball on one side of the line and arguably the Defensive Player of the Year in Tyron Mathieu on the other.

LSU was my pick to win the National Title at the beginning of the year and I asserted that in my last write up surrounding the hype of this match up.  You are all going to get to see a great football game again, the edge goes to the Tigers and I will have my final write up on this match-up at the end of the year.

A Fist Pump and Smile

I remember sending a tweet over the summer that said "Will Tiger ever find his old self again.." I had several responses and a number of individuals who voiced their opinions about Tiger.  A number of these people seemingly think Tiger has no chance to catch Jack.  Saying he's "burnt out" or "washed up".  I bit my tongue for the moment that finally came on the first Sunday in December 2011.  I could not of been more moved by Tiger's victory today at the Chevron World Challenge.

You could tell that Tiger felt an amazing sea of emotions with his victory.  Everyone was fist pumping in the gallery after his beautiful putt on the 17th green after lacing a beautiful iron up over the elevated green.  It seems as though people are beginning to accept him again.  You could see as he walked off the green the amount of fans trying to shake his hand and pat him on the back for his efforts this week.  Tiger stood on the 18th tee knowing what Zach Johnson had done yesterday after holing out at the end of his round.  He also knew, that holes 15-18 were very cruel to him this week.  It did not matter, we saw the Tiger of old today and if people in the golf world are not exciting about what is going to come in 2012, get ready.

After 749 days, TW finally rises back to the top of the golfing world after his win.  Jumping back to the 20th ranked player in the world after being outside the top 50 (52).  Tiger has won 83 tournaments world wide and today came his first since 2007.  For the week, he fired a -10 under 278 and beat out Zach Johnson by one stroke.  After landing his putt on the 18th green you saw Woods burst into an elated state of mind like he was the only one in the world who just witnessed.  Lets face it, the guy has been through hell and back ever since his scandal broke that November evening in 2009.

Losing his life long best friend on the bag Stevie Williams and his coach Hank Haney, Tiger had to do some soul searching as of late.  With a bad knee, and issues with his foot, some say Tiger would never win again.  False.  Yes, some may argue with me and say "Tiger won in a field of 18 this week and some of the best young guns were not in the tournament".  It does not matter, who ever you put in the field this week would not of lifted themselves above Tiger and won.  This was his time, he was destined to win this week and if you are not a believer that Tiger's game is coming back to form, check out his last few tournaments.  Outstanding performances outside of his lopsided loss to Adam Scott and KJ in the first pairing of the Presidents Cup, that was not an individual competition.

If you know anything about golf, and have been an avid watcher of Tiger's career, you can sense when he's going to wake up the world and make a statement.  Also, you would know that TW has handled more pressure in the game of golf than anyone to ever pick up a club.

So tonight, I'm going on the record to everyone reading this saying the man is back.  His swing looks phenomenal, he is hitting great iron shots again and has great control of the trajectory of his golf ball.  He was able to cut, draw and line golf ball all over the course this week.  You notice he has not been putting as much pressure on his knee and has worked drastically with his swing coach Sean Foley to improve his mechanics to best suit him in the long run.

Bottom line is, the man has 14 major victories and only needs a few more to break the record.  The ten time PGA tour player of the year will be 36 at the end of December heading into next year.  He was in contention at Augusta last year roaring back in the final two rounds only to come up a few shots short.  He will win TWO majors next year, one being the Masters, were he has had great success.  Let's face it, the world of golf needs Tiger and so does the rest of the sports world.


The 2012 Chinese zodiac says it will be the year of the dragon, wrong. It will be the Year of the Tiger. 


I sent this write up to Tiger via Twitter, hopefully he catches this on his way back to Florida.  


PJG

Tonights Posts

Tiger Woods and BCS Selection Sunday ... stay tuned

NFL Picks Week 13

Another week in the NFL and that means another week of picks on PJG Sports

Lets get at it.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay - Carolina's struggles continue but no one can doubt the great season Newton has had.  They need to draft some more defensive players in 2012.  Look for Blount to have a solid game on the ground, close one though.  Panthers 24-21

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh - Bengals will seek revenge in this Week 13 matchup with the Steelers.  Look for Dalton to throw the ball more and try to take advantage of the Steeler secondary.  Won't matter though, Ben will throw for 275+ and lead the Steelers to another W.  Pittsburgh 27-17

Atlanta vs. Houston - This would be an awesome game if Matt Shaub was not injured.  Houston, who still sits atop the South will look to go on the ground a lot.  Pick day for Foster and Co.  However, Matt Ryan has been on fire the last three weeks.  I like Atlanta, Foster can only do so much.  Falcons 30-20

NY Jets vs. Washington - Roy Helu showed major improvements last week on the ground and is now the starter in Washington.  This is a must win for the Jets, seeing as the Steelers will probably beat the Bengals, they could gain a game in the Wild Card race.  Jets 28-21

Indianapolis vs. New England - Colts would be out of their mind to bring Manning back this season.  Take your losses and move on.  They stand no chance against the Patriots this week.  Look for Brady to have an absolute field day with Welker and Gronkowski.  34-13

Oakland vs. Miami - Miami has shown signs of improvement in the last few weeks, still Oakland has improved and Palmer appears to be settling in.  Oakland needs to win to keep their edge in the west.  Oakland 20-10

Denver vs. Minnesota - AP is out again this week, which means they will have to resort to Toby Gerhart at the RB position.  I picked against him last week and he proved me wrong,  good for you Tebow.  Broncos 20-17

Tennessee vs. Buffalo - Buffalo has not been what they were at the beginning of the season.  Very unlikely either of these teams will be in the playoffs seeing how the Wild Card is pretty much locked between three teams.  Who wants the better draft pick?  Buffalo 27-21

Kansas City vs. Chicago - No Cutler, struggling on offense with Matt Forte, confusing days for the Bears.  KC is just horrid and stands no chance with Palko at the helm.  Bears 17-13

Baltimore vs. Cleveland - Interesting to see how Hillis will fair against the Ravens, last year in the first meeting he ran for 144 and two touchdowns. Still wont matter, Baltimore will show some toughness and lock the Browns down.  Ravens 24-10

Dallas vs. Arizona - Dallas is playing great football right now.  Look for them to continue this against the Cards.  Beanie wells wont be having the type of day he had last week.  Romo and Co. 29-17

Green Bay vs. NY Giants - Packers need to get out of this game with a win.  The only questionable game would be against the Lions.  Eli and the Giants need to figure out their running game and get back on track.  Wont happen this week though.  Pack stays golden.  35-20

St. Louis vs. San Francisco - 49ers all day in this one.  49ers 27-10

Detroit vs. New Orleans - Game of the Week in the NFL.  Look for Drew Brees to have a big game against the Detroit defense.  Love how the Saints are playing lately, not so much the Lions.  Saints 30-17

Enjoy your football sunday!

PJG